Wow, it’s like you’re putting hard data behind the phenomena I’ve been intuitively tracking for the last decade. (Btw Natasha Schüll came to my recent book event at NYU & gave me a copy of Addiction by Design—clearly I need to read it immediately.)
See this is how we can reach detente: this piece is good and should have been published by whoever commissioned it, which shows that traditional media (while still essential and necessary) can be dumb.
There was probably a short time where “prediction markets” were a useful analytical tool alongside polling, back when they were a niche thing. Wisdom of the crowds and all. But at this point we’re well past Goodharts Law taking action.
Yeah it feels like those practicality timelines just accelerate faster and faster now, though IIRC the original Predictit had value because its creators limited bets to a dollar since it was technically an academic project.
This essay is so important and far-reaching, and your points about masculinity, though a minority of the article, really resonated with me. I recently read "The Rocking-Horse Winner" by D.H. Lawrence, and one part of the story that resonated with me was the way that gambling sort of reverts men to an adolescent fixation on certainty and outcomes, and elevates those juvenile tendencies as the way you make money. There's a sort of childish masculinity there that glorifies strength and "ball knowledge" and, most importantly, power. I've had some interactions online with people who are heavily into Polymarket/Kalshi (One of these guys had contacts in Northern Iraq that would tell him when Israeli fighter jets flew over on their way to Israel, and believed this information gave him an edge on the prediction markets), and the moral weight of world events is completely lost on them. All they care about is the function and expression of power. Obviously, this ends in fascism, in the worship of power (And information as power), and in the denigration of any way of being a man that does not acquiesce to our most childish urges. Fascist cardboard box fort forever. No girls allowed!
Wow, it’s like you’re putting hard data behind the phenomena I’ve been intuitively tracking for the last decade. (Btw Natasha Schüll came to my recent book event at NYU & gave me a copy of Addiction by Design—clearly I need to read it immediately.)
Schüll's book is such a momentous work and has become a real touchpoint in conversations for me. Thank you for reading!!!
See this is how we can reach detente: this piece is good and should have been published by whoever commissioned it, which shows that traditional media (while still essential and necessary) can be dumb.
Ok I chuckled lol
There was probably a short time where “prediction markets” were a useful analytical tool alongside polling, back when they were a niche thing. Wisdom of the crowds and all. But at this point we’re well past Goodharts Law taking action.
Anyways, great work on this.
Yeah it feels like those practicality timelines just accelerate faster and faster now, though IIRC the original Predictit had value because its creators limited bets to a dollar since it was technically an academic project.
This essay is so important and far-reaching, and your points about masculinity, though a minority of the article, really resonated with me. I recently read "The Rocking-Horse Winner" by D.H. Lawrence, and one part of the story that resonated with me was the way that gambling sort of reverts men to an adolescent fixation on certainty and outcomes, and elevates those juvenile tendencies as the way you make money. There's a sort of childish masculinity there that glorifies strength and "ball knowledge" and, most importantly, power. I've had some interactions online with people who are heavily into Polymarket/Kalshi (One of these guys had contacts in Northern Iraq that would tell him when Israeli fighter jets flew over on their way to Israel, and believed this information gave him an edge on the prediction markets), and the moral weight of world events is completely lost on them. All they care about is the function and expression of power. Obviously, this ends in fascism, in the worship of power (And information as power), and in the denigration of any way of being a man that does not acquiesce to our most childish urges. Fascist cardboard box fort forever. No girls allowed!
it is CRIMINAL that teddy is posting these FREE on the god's internet and its not like the cover story in a magazine!!! legacy media's loss, our gain.
Great read!
What fool didn't publish this?! Great read.